Menthaoil
Menthaoil on MCX settled down -0.76% at 1657.4 on profit booking amid easing demand in the spot market. Besides, ample stocks on higher supplies from major producing belts of Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh too influenced mentha oil prices. As per the sources domestic demand has slightly improved from the major domestic consuming industries.
Stock positions of mentha in MCX accredited warehouses were around 6102 drums which is 96 drums less in comparison to previous day, while in process were 24 drums which is same against the previous day. According to the sources, there has been decline in demand of mentha from local consuming industries as well as stockiest which is creating pressure to the mentha prices.
Also in recent days arrivals has increased which is limiting the upside movement of the prices. As per sources, India contributes around 80% to the total global mentha oil production. Total global production stood at around 48,000 tonnes, out of which India produces between 30,000-40,000 tonnes. According to estimates, mentha oil production in India for crop year 2016-17 will be around 38,000 tonnes. As per the data, the global demand of essential oil will increase in the coming years.
Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.89% to settled at 1665 while prices down -12.7 rupees, now Menthaoil is getting support at 1633.6 and below same could see a test of 1609.8 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1675.6, a move above could see prices testing 1693.8.
Soyabean
Soyabean on NCDEX settled down -0.89% at 3238 on profit booking tracking weakness in spot demand after prices seen support amid supplies have been diminishing slowly in the physical market. Prices also seen under pressure from expectations that the US Department of Agriculture will later report bigger US stockpiles, pushing the oilseed to its biggest weekly fall in a month.
However, some losses were capped on the reports that the inventories are lower compared to last year and supplies have been diminishing slowly in the physical market. Brazilian soybean production in the 2017/18 crop cycle is expected to reach 114 million tonnes, consultancy AgRural said, citing an increase in planted area.
In a December forecast, AgRural had said production would reach 112.9 million tonnes. Last season, Brazil produced a record high 114.1 million tonnes. Chinese imports of soybeans jumped to the second-highest volume on record in December, according to data, boosted by strong demand in the run-up to next month's Lunar New Year holiday.
December imports by the world's top soy buyer came in at 9.55 million tonnes, up 10 percent from the month before and up 6 percent from December, 2016, according to calculations based on annual data released by the General Administration of Customs.
Ref soyoil
Ref soyoil ended with losses due to higher stocks in the country and sufficient stocks in the pipeline amid improved domestic crushing and higher imports. India's vegoil imports in December fell 10 percent to 1.1 million tonnes from a year ago, a trade body said. The country's imports of palm oil in December stood at 722,857 tonnes, while soyoil imports were 79,250 tonnes, the Solvent Extractors' Association of India said in a statement.
Moreover, government has slashed the base import price of all edible oils. For soy soil the base import prices were cut by $19 per ton to $813 for the first fortnight of Jan 2018. The government revises base import prices every fortnight based on global prices and changes in foreign exchange rate. Prices were last revised on Dec 30.
According to data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association (SEA), India vegetable oil imports rose around 6% on year to 12.5 lakh tonnes in November. Soyoil imports surged by 66.7% in November to 2.74 lt compared to 1.64 lt last year. India's oilmeal exports dropped by 22% compared to same period a year ago on higher prices amid lower number of export dates, provisional data released by Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA) showed. India's total oilmeal exports during December provisionally reported at 236,000 tons compared to 301,556 tons in the same period a year ago.
Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.26% to settled at 34130 while prices down -0.65 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 738 and below same could see a test of 736 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 742, a move above could see prices testing 744.
Turmeric
Turmeric on NCDEX settled up 0.87% at 7638 tracking firmness in spot demand owing to lower stocks in the market. The supplies from the new season turmeric have been lower during first 10 days of Jan at 4,118 tonnes compared to 5,527 tonnes last year, as per data. The export of turmeric is down by 17% to 63,395 tonnes for the first 7 month of FY 2017/18 compared to last years’ exports.
New crop would commence by the end of month and expectations of selling by the AP Markfed. AP Markfed had purchased nearly 48,500 ton turmeric under market intervention scheme. Standing turmeric crop is mostly in its vegetative to development stage across major growing states. As per preliminary estimates, output in the season is expected to decline slightly due to lower sowing.
Arrivals of new crop generally start in December and picks up in January-February. Spot turmeric prices decreased at Erode markets due to slack demand from upcountry buyers. Around 5,000 bags arrived for sale and the buyers purchased all the 600 bags of good quality turmeric and purchased 2,500 and odd bags of medium quality.
The best quality finger variety went for Rs8,400 a quintal in all the markets and the root variety at Rs7,800. At the Erode Turmeric Merchants Association, the finger turmeric fetched Rs5,555-8,539 a quintal; root variety Rs5,209-7,803. Of the arrival of 3,574 bags, 1,339 were traded.
Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.86% to settled at 10120 while prices up 66 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7585 and below same could see a test of 7531 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 7707, a move above could see prices testing 7775.
Jeera
Jeera prices traded in range amid reports of scattered new crop supplies in the markets of Gujarat and weak demand. Few bags of new crop jeera have been started arriving in Unjha market of Gujarat. Pressure also seen on prices amid lower demand in local mandis in anticipation oversupply woes following increased acreages.
Jeera sowing in Gujarat jumped to 382,600 hectare from 286,030 hectare a year ago. Sowing in Rajasthan, the other jeera sowing state, also spurted to 70,765 hectare until Jan 1 from 38,000 hectare a year ago. There is an expectation that jeera production may be higher in coming season on reports of higher acreage of cumin in the current season. In Gujarat, Jeera acreage is up by 38% to 3.83 lakh hectares as on 9-Jan-18. Last year, it was 2.88 lakh ha at that same time.
Jeera arrivals during first 10 days of Jan 18 Dec were down to 879.5 tonnes on year compared to 3,944 tonnes due to tight supplies and lower stocks with the stockists. Moreover, good progress of jeera sowing in Gujarat pressurizes prices.
As per government data, Jeera exports during first seven month of FY 2017/18 (Apr-Sep) is 88,229 tonnes, up 11% compared to last year exports volume for the same period. India's jeera exports in October increase by 37% on year to 10,402 tn.
Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.13% to settled at 8496 while prices down -25 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 16818 and below same could see a test of 16747 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 16953, a move above could see prices testing 17017.
Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
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